Battleground: How the outcome of the Ohio Senate race affects us all

Incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown vs. Trump-backed Bernie Moreno.

The 2024 Ohio senate contest could determine the balance of power in of the U.S. senate.

Today, On Point: What’s at stake in Ohio and how the outcome might affect all of us.

Karen Kasler, Ohio Public Radio and TV statehouse bureau chief.

Christopher Devine, associate professor of political science at the University of Dayton.

Tim Ryan, founder of the group "We the People," which aims to organize voters who feel exhausted by partisan politics. He was Ohio’s representative to the U.S. House for 20 years – from 2003 to 2023.

Part I

ANTHONY BROOKS: There's an old saying about American politics. As Ohio goes, so goes the nation. And there's some truth to that. Back in 2004, Democrat John Kerry came close to winning the presidency, but Ohio delivered the election to George W. Bush. Four years later, Barack Obama carried the state, helping him win the White House.

Since then, it has swung a lot more red. Twice voting for Donald Trump. Now a pivotal election in Ohio could determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. Democrat Sherrod Brown, a progressive populist, is running for his fourth term. His challenger is Bernie Moreno, a Trump backed political newcomer who says it's time for new blood.

BERNIE MORENO: The reality is we have an opportunity now. We have an opportunity now to retire the old commie and send them to retirement home and save this country.

BROOKS: But Sherrod Brown, an ally of the working class, has a record of defying political gravity, showing how a Democrat can win in the American heartland.

He says Moreno is in the race for the wrong reason.

SHERROD BROWN: He's a guy that is trying to buy the Senate seat. He's a guy that clearly looks out for himself. He has actually said, I'm not going to work with anybody I disagree with in the Senate.

BROOKS: I'm Anthony Brooks, in for Meghna Chakrabarti. This hour On Point, the shifting political landscape in Ohio, and the race that could determine control of the U.S. Senate. I'm joined first by Karen Kasler. She's the Statehouse Bureau Chief for Ohio Public Radio and TV. And Karen, it's great to have you. Thanks so much for joining us.

KAREN KASLER: It's great to be here. Thanks.

BROOKS: Yeah, this is such an interesting race. And I'd love to start, if you could just tell us something about Sherrod Brown.

Obviously, your listeners know all about him. A lot of people who are listening elsewhere in the country don't. So tell us something about him.

KASLER: Sherrod Brown was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006, and he beat a very popular Republican. U.S. Senator Mike DeWine, who is currently the governor, the two term governor of Ohio.

And since then, Sherrod Brown, like you said in the introduction, has been a populist, progressive Democrat. He has managed to maintain popularity even as Ohio has shifted more and more conservative. And this, he's even said, this is going to be his toughest reelection campaign yet.

BROOKS: Now talk a little bit about that.

A progressive, populist Democrat in a state that has been trending more red. How has he managed that? What's the message that he delivers, that so far, at least in his career, has been successful?

KASLER: The people who have watched him and studied him have really concluded it, he has a way of speaking to blue collar Democrats, to working people to some of the base that Trump and Republicans have spoke to, as well.

And so he manages to cross that line. Now, of course, you look at his voting record and he's very clearly a Democrat, very clearly aligned with President Biden on a lot of issues. He has publicly broken with Biden on some things, and he's talking a lot more about his breaks with Biden now, because he's running in a state where it seems very likely that Trump's going to win, right?

BROOKS: So really interesting. Breaking with Biden on some issues, still a loyal Democrat who votes with Biden, right? The majority of the time.

KASLER: Oh, absolutely. Yeah. And I think it's just really interesting to watch this campaign and to see how he's talking about, how he is aligned with even Trump on issues.

There's an ad that's circulating right now featuring sheriffs from some of Ohio's 88 counties, and it talks about Trump and signing a piece of legislation on fentanyl. Biden is nowhere near mentioned in that ad. And so it's part of his campaign strategy, I believe.

BROOKS: It's really interesting. So a progressive Democrat, but in a way, is it fair to say that he's figured out how to tap into some of that populist energy that maybe Donald Trump has even managed to figure out? The idea that he is reaching folks who feel left behind by economic changes over time.

It seems like at least on that measure, he's got something in common with Trump.

KASLER: Yeah. I think he speaks definitely to working people. He talks about the dignity of work, and he's gotten a lot of union support, of course. And I think that's his style and has been, because the state has been shifting over time, more and more Republican. Since 2006, the state has done a really hard shift to the right. And when you look at Ohio's election maps, you can see how red Ohio is becoming, especially in rural areas.

BROOKS: All right let's hear a little bit from Sherrod Brown. So here's an interview with MSNBC last month, and Senator Brown talked about what his priorities are, in his alliance with working people, saying where he stands. Here he is.

BROWN: I know that when I focus on taking on interest groups, when I focus on what we've done to fight back against what Norfolk Southern did to a lot of people in my state, with that train derailment, what the drug companies have done on overpricing. What, my wife and I, every, almost every Sunday after church, we go to a grocery store in the neighborhood, and I see people all the time who are paying more for their groceries because of stock buybacks and because of bonuses that executives get. So people know that I'm going to stand up and take on interest groups.

BROOKS: So there's Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio with me is Karen Kasler, Ohio Public Radio and TV Statehouse Bureau Chief. And Karen, he's being challenged by Bernie Moreno, a businessman from the Cleveland area endorsed by Trump. Tell us something about, a little more about him.

KASLER: Bernie Moreno won a three-way Republican U.S. Senate race in March. He beat a state senator and the sitting secretary of state, but he won primarily because he had that Trump endorsement. All three of the candidates in that race were touting their Trump views and their Trump-backed ideas. But it was Bernie Moreno, when he got that Trump endorsement, that really vaulted to the top.

It was the same kind of a thing with J. D. Vance, Ohio's Junior us Senator, who got a boost from Trump and ended up winning that race in 2022. But Bernie Moreno is a former luxury car dealer. He owned a network of luxury car and other car dealerships in Cleveland. He also was a big entrepreneur in technology, Bitcoin, blockchain, and those are pretty much how he's made his money.

He says that he does not have any interest in those things right now, or at least in the car dealerships. And his primary job is running for U.S. Senate, he says.

BROOKS: Interesting. Let's hear from him. In March, during the final debate between the three Ohio Republican Senate contenders, Bernie Moreno made it clear that he was hitching his political wagon to Donald Trump.

MORENO: He's a good man. President Trump's a good man. This idea that I support his policies, but not the personality, that's a bunch of BS. That is media talking points. This is a man that could have given up on this country a long time ago. That has taken more abuse than any other human would have ever taken.

They're trying to put the man in jail, take away his businesses, put his kids in jeopardy. And what does he do? He wakes up every single day and fights for us and fights for this country.

BROOKS: And here's former President Trump, who spoke about Republican candidate Bernie Moreno at a campaign stop in Dayton, Ohio in mid-March.

Trump said Moreno's appeal should be in part that he's a political newcomer.

DONALD TRUMP: Bernie is a political outsider who has spent his entire life building up Ohio communities. He's highly respected, and he's going to be a warrior in Washington. Bernie's strong on borders. He'll fight to crush the cartels that are flooding our towns and cities with fentanyl and deadly drugs.

BROOKS: So Karen, no doubt there that Bernie Moreno is hitching his political wagon to Donald Trump and vice versa, right?

KASLER: Yeah, and even when I sat down with Bernie Moreno for an interview just before the election. I asked him, do you have any doubts? Because he did have doubts at one point, apparently. In 2016, he had shared on Twitter now known as X, some social media posts, which were critical of Donald Trump.

And he pulled those back, erased those, eliminated those and says he is fully behind Trump now, even though Trump through his legal problems, through some of the things he said about Russia and NATO, all of that, he says he fully supports him. And he said what you just played there. He voted for him twice.

He believes he's being treated unfairly and that he is a good man.

BROOKS: Right. Now, you mentioned that Moreno defeated two more mainstream Republicans, State Senator Matt Dolan and the Secretary of State, Frank LaRose. How did he do that? And talk about the kind of candidate he is compared to those other two more mainstream Republicans.

KASLER: And that's the thing. When you start talking about mainstream Republicans state Senator Matt Dolan has been in the Senate for a while. He was considered more of the middle of the road, moderate Republican, but he definitely, when I spoke to him about trying to find a lane in that race. He very clearly said he didn't support Donald Trump personally, but he supported Trump's policies.

And then Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who was in charge of Ohio's elections, really made a very strong shift toward Trump. And so the race really became about Trump and about who was the one who was most likely to support Trump, if Trump were elected this fall. And so it was clear from Trump's endorsement that Bernie Moreno was the guy.

BROOKS: Now, Sherrod Brown, as you mentioned, first elected in 2006, now he's running for a fourth term. And since that first run, Ohio has become a lot more red and it feels like this might be his biggest challenge yet. Fair to say?

KASLER: Oh, there's no question. And this is going to be the most expensive U.S. Senate race in Ohio history. It's already number three on the most expensive races in the U.S. according to Open Secrets. And it's just going to blow previous spending away, because you've got Democrats who want Sherrod Brown to win so they can keep that slim margin in the U.S. Senate and Republicans who feel that Sherrod Brown is vulnerable and going to do whatever they can to vault Bernie Moreno over Brown.

BROOKS: Right. Now slim margin in the center for the Democrats.

We should mention 51 to 49, so it can't get any slimmer than that. Now, Brown is often talked about the Democrat who can appeal to the industrial heartland, you know, presenting the kind of a model for Democrats. If he goes down to a Trump backed candidate, what does that say about the future of Democrats in states like Ohio?

KASLER: It's a really good question. Democrats have really seen their fundraising power, their power to bring in good candidates who are known, who can raise money, have seen those things erode over the last few years. And Democrats will tell you gerrymandering is a big part of that. Ohio's maps, according to the Ohio Supreme Court, were drawn to favor Republicans strongly over Democrats.

And so it really does send, a concern among Democrats is how are you going to rebuild the party and take back the party when the candidate who is the most popular elected statewide Democrat might not win. And so they have really been pushing hard from primary day to make sure that Bernie Moreno is not the candidate.

He's not the one who wins.

Part II

BROOKS: We're talking about Ohio Senate race and how the balance of power in the U.S. Senate could depend on the outcome. Democrat Sherrod Brown, a progressive populist, is running for his fourth term. His challenger is Bernie Moreno, a Trump-backed political newcomer who says it's time for a change.

So let's listen to these two candidates or rather let's listen to first the incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown and his acceptance speech after he won reelection in November 2018. Brown said that his win for a third time in the U.S. Senate should be a message to the rest of the country.

BROWN: Let them all cast their eyes towards the heartland, to the industrial Midwest, to our great Lake state.

Let them hear what we say. Let them see what we do. We will show America how we celebrate the dignity of work. How we honor organized labor and all workers, the waitress in Toledo, the nurse in Columbus, the office worker in Dayton, the mine worker in Kaschak. (CHEERS)

That is the message coming out of Ohio in 2018. And that is the blueprint for America for 2020.

BROOKS: That was Senator Sherrod Brown in his acceptance speech November 2018. Now let's switch to last March during the final debate between the three Ohio Republican Senate contenders. Bernie Moreno expressed concern about the future of the country.

MORENO: This election is about what kind of country are we. Are we a country that honors our founding principles? Are we a country that is true to the fact that we have to put America, always America and Americans, first? Are we going to be a country that continues to send career politicians to Washington, D.C., where they think about their job and their career?

BROOKS: Joining me now is Christopher Devine. He's associate professor of political science at the University of Dayton. ... Christopher Devine, great to have you.

Thanks for joining us.

CRISTOPHER DEVINE: Great to be with you, Anthony. Thank you.

BROOKS: I'd love you to add to anything that, Karen really helped us understand who these two people are. But talk first about Sherrod Brown. How do you describe what he means to Ohio, and what he's accomplished?

DEVINE: Yeah. Karen did a great job setting the stage for this.

And I'll just add some things to that. And also you've been using the term progressive populist. Throughout the broadcast, and that's exactly how Sherrod Brown describes himself. I think it tells you a lot. Two things. First of all, that he brands himself, and he really is a brand in Ohio.

He really separates himself from the rest of the Democratic Party. I think that's the key to understanding why he has a chance here, an increasingly red Ohio. He's set himself apart as someone who fights for workers. That's how he brands himself. That's the populist angle. He talks about working for the people, actually for working people, against corporations and against Wall Street.

But he does it very much from the political left. We've seen populism from the political right with Donald Trump for that matter. Bernie Moreno. But Sherrod Brown tends to be focusing largely on economic issues. We may get into that more. It's not that he focuses exclusively on that. He's really a liberal or progressive Democrat on a range of issues, but that tends to be his focus.

When you hear his campaign messaging and you heard some of it there in those clips, that's perfect. He will talk about fighting for workers first and foremost. That's the first thing you see when you go to any of his web pages. But also, he proudly embraces that progressive label.

I think that's one thing I would point out that's different about him. As someone who's running in really a red state, a Trump state. We've seen a lot in other states where Democratic candidates who are running for reelection, try to separate themselves by being more moderate.

Sherrod Brown's never really done that, right from the start. If you look at every single victory speech he's given in his three Senate elections, he's described himself as a progressive. And a populist, he's not afraid of that label.

BROOKS: He's not afraid of that label. Christopher, the sense I get when it comes to Sherrod Brown is there's a word that keeps showing up that his supporters use: authentic.

He seems, it seems like when you hear Sherrod Brown talk, when you see him talk, you know who he is, you know where he's coming from, and he's been pretty consistent. And that word authentic seems to come up a lot.

DEVINE: That's right. And it's interesting because he does associate himself so much with working class folks, unions in particular.

He's someone who did not grow up in that environment. And he's from a well-to-do family. He went to Yale. He ran for his first office, actually won election. He was recruited into the state legislature in Ohio at 21 years old, in his senior year of college he decided to join this race and he won, and he's been in politics ever since.

So you might think what's the connection there? Why would any working-class folks connect with him? He's built this brand over time and largely it's through policy, through opposing free trade agreements. Before that was cool, basically, a lot of places or in both parties, in the 1990s, he was leading the fight against NAFTA.

Later on, it was CAFTA. It's been TPP. He's worked with Donald Trump on and voted for the reform to NAFTA, the U S MCA. And actually, added an amendment to that regarding labor protections. He's built this profile over time. Even just symbolic things. Again, if you follow his races, and one thing I have to point out is his campaign messaging is just so consistent throughout an election and from election to election.

And you'll always hear, as I refer to the greatest hits, things that kind of reinforce this populist image. He'll always be telling you that he drives a Jeep made in Toledo, made in America. And that he wears suits made in Cleveland by union workers. So he reinforces constantly that idea that even if that's not his background, that is who he's thinking about.

BROOKS: So I want to talk a little bit about, quite a bit about the man who's challenging him, Bernie Moreno. And during his acceptance speech after winning the Republican primary in Ohio, Moreno laid out five things he plans to do if he wins in November against Sherrod Brown.

MORENO: Number one, we're going to have a safe and secure border where people only come into this country legally. (APPLAUSE)

We're never going to ask another country for energy, because we're going to be an energy dominant nation. (CHEERS) We're going to do massive reform of our three letter agencies to make certain that they understand spying on Americans is unacceptable. General, we're going to restore law and order in this country, aren't we?

Absolutely, right? And then for you parents out there, that are sending your kids to school and you're sick and tired of these schools indoctrinating your kids, by the end of next year, the Department of Education is gone.

BROOKS: So there it is, Bernie Moreno, who's challenging Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Christopher, what do you want to add about our understanding of who Bernie Moreno is?

DEVINE: So one thing I find interesting, if anyone's looking at Bernie Moreno's campaign materials. If you go to his website, for instance, he has a section that says why I'm running. And explains what his objective is. And how he frames the race is exactly how Sherrod Brown frames every race of his, it says first and foremost, that he's running for American workers.

He says he's going to organize the whole campaign around a simple concept. What is good for American workers and families? So that's a similar theme to what we hear from Sherrod Brown. I think he's trying to maybe take on Sherrod Brown on his own turf there. But the priorities that he lists below are different ones than you hear Sherrod Brown talk about when it comes to establishing his championing of workers.

And it's many of the same things that you heard there. It's not really a lot in economics, it's education. It's the border. Number three on his list is restoring the integrity of elections. He talks about ending socialism and allowing free markets to work. Number 13 on his list, he talks about restoring American manufacturing toward the end of that list.

I think he's going to have a challenge if he wants to run on that theme. If he really wants to take on Sherrod Brown there, he could just try to be something different, but he's take him on that territory. And he's going to be challenged to talk about things like health care and how allowing free markets to work still allows protection for American workers.

He may be able to make that case. I will say one of his strengths is he's a great communicator. I see him a lot like J.D. Vance, someone who had no political experience. But was very effective on the campaign trail. That's not the only thing working for him. I think the Trump endorsement was key, as Karen Kasler said.

But he's someone who can explain himself pretty well.

BROOKS: And then you mentioned J.D. Vance. And of course, J.D. Vance defeated Tim Ryan back in 2022 and took the Ohio's other Senate seat. Bernie Moreno trying to do that, as well. Really fundamental question, Christopher Devine, that I've been dying to ask you.

Ohio used to be a purple state. It went for Obama twice, but Trump carried the state in 2016, 2020, both times by, I think, eight points, maybe more than eight points, but pretty decisively. It's really not considered a battleground state anymore. What happened? What explains that apparent seismic political shift in a state that was once known as a kind of key battleground state?

DEVINE: Anthony, you're right. We saw really a dramatic shift right around 2012, at least at the presidential level. There is a difference here. From 1964 to 2012, Ohio was the bellwether. Kyle Kondik has a great book on this that ... listeners might know or want to check out.

Ohio was within 2.2% of the national vote every time. Now there were some landslides in there. It doesn't mean Ohio was always competitive, but it was always closely tracking the nation as a whole for whatever reasons, we could get into that.

BROOKS: Hence that saying as Ohio goes, so goes the nation, right?

Yeah, go ahead. Sorry.

DEVINE: It's so true. Yeah. And in those races, whoever won Ohio won the election. That changes in 2016 in both of these elections, 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump loses the national popular vote by a few points. He wins Ohio by eight points. Ohio is as close as Texas in those elections. So we saw a dramatic change there.

If you look within Ohio, and by the way, you see some similar patterns when it comes to Sherrod Brown's Senate races. But within Ohio, shifts demographically or geographically, for instance, southeastern Ohio, Appalachian, Ohio, which only represents about 5% of Ohio's population, so it doesn't make a huge difference in the overall vote, but a dramatic shift there where that used to be the battleground within Ohio, battleground within the battleground. And now Democrats struggle to win more than a third of the vote in many of those counties.

Now there is some compensation, other parts of the state. So for example, the Columbus area in central Ohio, not just Franklin County where Columbus is, but even some of the suburban counties like Delaware County, just north of that, which represents about a 10th of the Ohio state population, there's a formerly strongly Republican area that has moved toward Democrats over time.

So basically, what we're seeing, Anthony, is a similar shift to what we're seeing in the nation as a whole, where really the rural areas move decisively toward the Republican party. It was already happening, but it accelerated under Donald Trump. So rural Ohio moved towards Donald Trump, Appalachian area, Western Ohio, whereas suburban areas around Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, have been trending somewhat democratic, but really overall, Republicans are still very strong in the state.

BROOKS: Got it. Christopher Devine, stand by because I want to introduce another guest. Tim Ryan joins us now from Columbus, Ohio. Tim Ryan, a Democrat, was a congressman from Ohio for 20 years. In 2022, he ran for the U.S. Senate, very much in the mold of a Sherrod Brown, I think it's fair to say, but he lost to Republican J.D. Vance. He has since founded the group "We the People," which aims to organize voters frustrated by today's partisan politics and Tim Ryan. Welcome to On Point. It's great to have you.

TIM RYAN: Great to be with you, Anthony.

BROOKS: I'd love it. If you could add to what Christopher Devine was how he was describing this sort of shift toward a redder state that Ohio has gone through.

What's your take on why that has happened? And what explains it?

RYAN: I think it's a real interesting dynamic. Because I think in the top line, I think Christopher is exactly right. There has been this shift, and you can look at the Trump numbers, but I identify this is how damaged the Democratic brand is in places like Ohio and others, industrial Midwestern states. And in the South, because we've had initiatives on the ballot just as early as last fall, in November, we had a marijuana legalization issue on the ballot.

And we had a pro-choice amendment on the ballot, in both of those initiatives with about 57% of the vote, the people voted basically with the Democratic position on it. And this goes back, even 10 years where there was a huge initiative called Senate Bill 5, which Christopher will remember.

It was basically going to make Ohio a right-to-work state, and so it passed. John Kasich was then governor, signed it. The Democrats, we put it on the ballot and campaigned, and that passed with 63% of the votes for a pro-union initiative. So you have marijuana legalization, pro-choice, pro-union, wins with anywhere from 57% to 63% of the vote, but yet you put a D by the name of a candidate, and you take a significant hit on that.

And I think that speaks directly to the damage that the Democratic brand has taken on in the last, probably, 10 years plus.

BROOKS: That's a really interesting analysis. So what does it say, then, about Sherrod Brown's kind of politics? Are they still viable in Ohio? Or do you accept the idea that sort of Christopher Devine was talking about, that even though he's got a D by his name, he's got this brand that has helped him in a way to defy political gravity, if you will?

RYAN: Yeah, 100%. The best advantage Sherrod Brown has is that he's Sherrod Brown. He's a known entity across the state in every county, every corner, every hamlet and village, shall I say, in Ohio, they know Sherrod Brown. Because he's been around for 40 years plus. And he has that brand that he represents the working-class people, whether they're white or Black or brown or gay or straight.

If you're working class, Sherrod Brown is your advocate. And that's his real advantage that he has to maybe inoculate him from, oh, he's going to go to Washington and just be in line with the Democrats. Versus Sherrod Brown's on my side. And I think that trade issue that Christopher brought up, was really important. Because I was in Congress with Sherrod during some of those votes, where we were literally whipping and organizing against trade agreements, even against the Democratic president.

So he has the bona fides that he is willing to take on his own party if it's not going to work for working class people in Ohio.

BROOKS: Tim Ryan, I think I'm recalling correctly, was it you who said that to win in Ohio as a Democrat, the only thing you need is to have the name Sherrod Brown?

RYAN: (LAUGHS)

BROOKS: I'm pretty sure you said that.

RYAN: Yeah, I think in this current environment, because again, the brand is damaged here. You can't ignore that fact, but Sherrod can transcend the Democratic brand because of his ability. We were able to, in our Senate race, we were up five points going into Labor Day.

We didn't get any help from Washington D.C., with Schumer, the Democratic majority PAC, we were literally up going into the fall. And we had 400,000 people that voted for Republican Mike DeWine and voted for me. So there is some softening in the middle, in this current environment.

And Sherrod Brown, I think will have the resources from Schumer as an incumbent to be able to do it.

Part III

BROOKS: Let's listen back to a debate in October 2022. This was between Tim Ryan and Republican J.D. Vance. They were competing for the Senate, and J. D. Vance had just garnered the endorsement of Donald Trump.

RYAN: And I think the problem is when you have guys like J.D. Vance who can't stand up to anybody, like just a few weeks ago in Youngstown on the stage. Donald Trump said to J.D. Vance, All you do is kiss my (expletive) to get my support.

He said that's bad because that means J. D. Vance is going to do whatever he wants. I don't know anybody I grew up with. I don't know anybody I went to high school with, that would allow somebody to take their dignity like that and then get back up on stage. We need leaders who have heart, courage to take on their own party.

BROOKS: So Tim Ryan is with us. And Tim, I want to ask you about that moment, not so much that moment, but what it suggested in the campaign, because correct me if I'm wrong, you were in a similar situation as Sherrod Brown. Running against a political newcomer, J.D. Vance, for the Senate. And in many ways, you ran a textbook campaign.

That was supposed to win in a state like Ohio. You have working class bona fides. You were a high school football coach, but you lost. And I'm just wondering, does that bode poorly for Sherrod Brown?

RYAN: Again, I think Sherrod's in a different position. He has two advantages that I didn't have.

And as we joked earlier, his name is Sherrod Brown. He has a 40-year reputation of being for working class folks. This was my first run in a state with 12 or 13 media markets, trying to get to know people. So he has that kind of built-in brand, built in advantage. I was trying to build my own brand on the go during this race.

That's one. And two, we were up. We raised $50 million bucks, but we spent it because we had to be in the race. We were literally up five points going into Labor Day, and we got to that point with the hope that the Senate Majority PAC and Senator Schumer would see that we were doing well, and we had an opportunity, but I was not an incumbent.

And usually how D.C. works is, their political arms support incumbents. And so I was behind four or five other incumbents who needed the money. So I didn't get the $70 million that I needed to close the gap. And Mitch McConnell came in for J.D. Vance with $50 million bucks. And that's when we just went underwater in the final weeks.

Sherrod Brown will have that money. So he has the brand and the money. And that's why I think he's got a good chance to pull this off.

BROOKS: I see. Christopher Devine, let me bring you back into this conversation. Respond to what Tim just said there. Do you agree with that?

DEVINE: Yeah, I think incumbancy is a huge advantage.

And this is one of those secrets for anybody who really looks at the data on these things. We get this impression because of political rhetoric these days that people are just totally sick of Washington, throw the bums out, drain the swamp, all this kind of stuff. The last, that 2022 election cycle, of course, Congressman Ryan's Senate race was an open seat race, but for any incumbent running for reelection, not a single one lost.

100% were reelected. Now, of course, some people avoid running for reelections. We see Joe Manchin doing in West Virginia, because they see the writing on the wall and they just opt not to run again. But incumbency is a huge advantage. People often like sticking with someone they know, even if they have problems with that person.

There are a lot of people who love Sherrod Brown. There's some that aren't so sure, but the fact that they know who he is and that Bernie Moreno really is an unknown quantity. He's a newcomer to politics, that provides Sherrod Brown with some advantage.

BROOKS: So let's hear again from Bernie Moreno this is about a key issue, abortion.

In March, Bernie Moreno spoke to ABC News 5 in Cleveland about his stance on abortion.

MORENO: We gotta put policies in place that make it less expensive to have children, less expensive to raise children, make certain that women have access to good health care. Let's make sure that adoption services are more readily available.

Let's make certain that we fund pregnancy centers that really take care of women, not only while they're having a baby, but afterwards. And then, as much as there's a federal role, we can get to a place where there's a 15-week floor standard, that says after 15 weeks, we have common sense restrictions that don't allow elective, late term abortions and we can have consensus around this issue once and for all.

BROOKS: Bernie Moreno there talking about a 15-week abortion ban. Now, as we mentioned Tim Ryan, you mentioned this. That last fall, Ohio passed a ballot measure overwhelmingly by 13 points, enshrining abortion rights into its constitution. Talk a little bit about how you see the abortion issue playing out in this race, because it's going to be a huge issue across the country come November.

RYAN: Yeah, I think as Christopher mentioned earlier, Delaware County, some of the suburban counties around Columbus, around Cincinnati, that you would see, even in a Jim Jordan congressional district county, went 57% with the pro-choice movement. And so I think it is going to be a huge issue.

And I think that's something you're going to see a lot, probably in the mailbox, with a lot of digital advertising in these communities. Because Moreno has said he's 100% pro-life. No exceptions. And that is going to scare a lot of those suburban moms, and young women in these communities. And that will be a major message that will get out.

So I think that's going to hurt them. And again, Sherrod has that unique ability to be a Democrat, but have his own brand. And so I think a lot of those voters will feel comfortable voting for Sherrod on that issue, but on other issues too, that he's not going to be an extremist politician in Washington, D.C.

But I think that's going to be the entry point of where Sherrod Brown's going to be able to peel off some votes.

BROOKS: Yeah, Christopher Devine, you agree with that?

DEVINE: Yeah, absolutely. And I'll just add something to that, especially on that last point that Congressman Ryan was making, on Sherrod Brown's ideology. To me, this is the most interesting thing about Sherrod Brown, whether we're talking about abortion or other issues, is that Sherrod Brown, while he puts in front the economic issues, fighting for working class voters, which of course, any issue could tie in some way to working class issues.

But when it comes to abortion, he's fully with the Democratic Party there. He just doesn't tend to run on these issues. And I thought, not the first thing you hear about. And I think that's one of the reasons why. We've been talking about him throughout this broadcast as a progressive populist and folks might wonder why not just call him a progressive?

What's distinctive about him? People see him differently and this isn't just a perception. I can provide some hard data on this. If you look at survey evidence in 2018, really good survey data here that I analyzed in a book chapter that I wrote on Sherrod Brown's election in 2018, 70% of people identify him as liberal.

All right. So that's accurate. He's one of the more liberal members of the Senate, long has been. But if you ask them about their perception of the Democratic party's ideology, in general, Ohioans see Sherrod Brown as less liberal than Democratic party. Now that's clearly not true.

If you look at his voting record, listen to his policies and so on, he is a relatively liberal member, progressive member of the Democratic party, but he's not perceived as such, and actually, Democrats perceive him as more liberal, more progressive than the party as a whole to them.

That's basically a good thing. But Independents and Republicans especially see him as significantly less, let's say more moderate than the Democratic party. So on any of these given issues, there's the perception, at least, broadly within Ohio, that however extreme some people, Republicans, Independents might think the Democratic party is, maybe that's what's turning them off, they see Sherrod Brown as someone different.

There's hard data that shows that.

BROOKS: That's interesting.

RYN: And Anthony, if I could just comment on that. I think that is probably the most important point that any Democrat, any person who's interested in helping the Democratic Party defeat Trump and win control of the House and the Senate, you lead with the economics.

And I think the party has gotten away when people say that "I didn't leave, the Democrats left me." It's because they feel like we don't talk enough about economics, jobs, wages, pensions. And Sherrod has a long record on that saving hundreds of thousands of people's pensions, Teamster pensions, when a pension system collapsed, he was able to get money to help restore that, but for too often, Democrats come into places like Ohio, the industrial Midwest, the Rust Belt, the South, where economics are front and center. The first five or 10 issues on someone's plate as a voter is an economic issue, cost of prescription drugs, whatever the case may be. And you come in and you're talking about a social issue.

You look disconnected from what the actual concerns are for people paying their mortgage. Doing what's right by their kids, the cost of food, and as the party has moved away from leading with economics and more leading with social, driven by Twitter and social media, we've lost working class voters.

And Trump came in and exposed that and moved those working-class voters over to him, not just white working class either. You see the number with Latinos, you see the number in the Black community. It's a working-class issue. And so Sherrod's able to hit that point. And that's, again, why he's got a good shot here.

BROOKS: So earlier in the hour, we heard from Sherrod Brown talking about his win, his last win in 2018, being a sort of blueprint for America. He said that the message coming out of Ohio, that this is a blueprint for America in the years ahead. Tim Ryan, is that still true?

Is that still a viable blueprint for Democrats?

RYAN: Yeah. I've been screaming this from the rooftops my entire career in Congress and then the Senate race: economics. And Sherrod does that. And I think you look at Jon Tester too. Out in his race, he's someone that's very focused.

BROOKS: That's the state of Montana, of course. Where John Tester is going to face a tough race against the Republican challenger there.

RYAN: You're going to see Bob Casey in in Pennsylvania, these Democrats that I think lead with economics are the model for the party moving forward.

And Sherrod, again, has a lot to brag about. The intel is coming in to invest $100 billion into reshoring chip manufacturing. That's going to be a huge campaign issue, led by the CHIPS Act that Sherrod helped pass. That's leading to all this development with union construction, data centers, all of this growth, the car plants that are moving to electric, the battery plants that are moving to Ohio, all economics, and you're going to hear a lot from Sherrod on that in the next six, seven months.

BROOKS: By the way, we do want to say, and I probably should have said this earlier in the show. We did reach out to Senator Sherrod Brown and to Bernie Moreno. We wanted to get them on this hour for at least a brief period. But schedules are tight. We understand campaigns are busy enterprises. Neither one was available, but we just did want to make that clear that we were hoping to get them on the show.

BROOKS: Tim Ryan, I want to ask you a little bit about your latest enterprise because last summer you launched an advocacy group called "We the People." My understanding is that it's an advocacy group aimed at organizing voters who feel exhausted by partisan politics. Tell us more about that.

RYAN: Yeah, we really wanted to focus on, these are issues I worked on in Congress, but I think when you move the D or the R by the name and you just focus on issues, there's a lot more opportunity to build consensus.

And we're focusing on and we're doing media and digital content with really compelling videos around issues that I care about, that I think there's a consensus that will actually help transform the country. We're talking about using food as medicine to reverse chronic disease.

We're talking about regenerative agriculture to replenish the soil. We're talking about new ways of manufacturing and resuscitating manufacturing like the CHIPS Act that we did. I'm talking about psilocybin and MDMA and these other opportunities to heal trauma, especially with vets. Mindfulness and social, emotional learning in the schools.

So in each of these verticals, we're going to do compelling content. And then we're going to try to organize, say, vets who have been healed by psilocybin or MDMA, working with maps and the other groups that are out there. How do you do compelling content and then organize them, the vets, their families, their friends, who know that this stuff works, we're still losing 18 to 20 vets a day by suicide.

So that's just one example. And I want to try to shift the culture and the conversation to ideas. And solutions on how we fix these, seem to be intractable problems that we have in the country. And I'm really excited about it. So people can go to Wethepeople250.us and check out our website and see what we're up to.

BROOKS: Tim Ryan, I want to thank you so much for joining us today. And for really helping us understand what's going on in Ohio and about this important Senate race. Thanks so much for joining us. We really appreciate it.

RYAN: Thanks for having us. Thank you. Yeah, sure thing.

BROOKS: And Christopher Devine, stay with us for just another minute or so.

I'd love to get your final thoughts on this very important Senate race. What are you going to be watching for in the weeks ahead?

DEVINE: So I think we're all watching in terms of the Senate race. Ohio, of course, is one of them, but also Montana, Arizona. These are the three dead heat Senate races. As you were mentioning earlier, we have a 51 to 49 Senate right now in favor of Democrats.

Of course, even if they lost a seat, Kamala Harris as VP casts a tie-breaking vote in the Senate. But if Democrats were to lose the presidency, if Donald Trump were to win, they really need to retain all of these seats.

Yeah, we're all keeping our eyes on various states right now. But of course, Ohio in the context of our discussion is a big one. And it's going to be interesting to see how this campaign takes shape. How are the candidates doing in terms of raising money, running ads? I'll throw one thought out there if I have time for it.

BROOKS: Yeah, about 10 seconds and then we got to go. But please, one more thought.

DEVINE: In 2018 Sherrod Brown ran against a weak candidate in Jim Renacci, who was wealthy and could have financed his campaign.

He barely spent on it. It's one reason he lost. We'll see if Bernie Moreno puts more of his money into the race this time around.